US market analysts’ life just got a whole lot more complicated. As if it wasn’t difficult enough to assess what economic data means. For example, is higher unemployment actually a “good” thing? Perhaps, if you are banking on the Fed aggressively cutting rates. Or is it a “bad” thing because it suggests an economy that might be beginning to falter, and you are focused on economic growth. There simply is no correct answer, only an interpretation shaped primarily by an investor’s viewpoint at any given point in time.
Introducing the Plotinus Large Language Model AI Trading League
As the northern hemisphere summer draws to a close, it beckons in a restarting of everything from the school year to the European football (soccer) seasons. We at Plotinus have decided as part of our ongoing research into AI powered trading, to run a small experiment, in the vein of a football league. Its objective is to determine how well, by creating a trading strategy, some of the large language generative AI models, will performance against each other and standard investment benchmarking.
The Implications of Chinese Lower Tech, Efficient AI
Probably the most significant news to come from the recent Shanghai World AI conference was the announcement that Chinese AI company Z.ai has developed its own AI model which is significantly cheaper than its both local rival Deepseek and its many giant US competitors, Open AI, Anthropic AI, X AI, Meta and Google. Furthermore Z.ai loudly proclaimed how it was being run on only 8 of Nvidia’s H20 chips.
The Potential Market Impact of Deliberate Uncertainty and Resolute Action
The US markets have made a very notable and rapid recovery from their post Liberation Day lows in early April. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both made new highs, recovering more than 20% in the process. The bleak year end targets for the indices have been forgotten and the optimistic outlook restored. All looks good from an investment perspective. But is it really?
Seeking Plato’s Assistance to Manage the Soul of Investing
The US stock markets seem to be encountering a form of identity crisis, the last couple weeks, bull to bear to bull again. They could be forgiven were they afraid to look in the mirror to see which animal was peering back at them. When on a whim, utterances such as “Our discussions with them (the EU) are going nowhere!” can knock off a percent and a half and “I had a very nice call with her (Ursula Vonder Leyen)” can add two percent to the major indices, perhaps the markets have become some half bull, half bear minotaur creature of Greek mythology.
Beware of False Confidence—In the Wake of a Giant, Unfolding Economic Experiment
April has seen enormous market fluctuations following the unleashing of the White House’s tariff roll-out, roll-back. For the truly passive investor, those fortunate enough to be oblivious to not only the day-to-day fluctuations but the tweet-to-tweet market convulsions, they could be forgiven for not understanding what the fuss has all been about.
April Foolery: Dealing With Volatility in World of Tariff Fueled Anxiety
It is probably just as well that “Liberation Day” falls on April 2nd and not a day earlier, which would just add more confusion were it to share the occasion with April Fools’ Day. The past month has shown just how hard the markets have found it to work out who is fooling who, trying to figure out the impact of the raft of US tariff announcements (and stays of execution) emanating from the White House.
The Difficulty of Using Data to Make Healthy Investment Decisions in Health Care
Of all the investment sectors, health care is perhaps the most difficult one to remove emotionalism from clouding investor decision-making. Health is distinctly personally relevant, complex and is frequently couched in worry, fear and the ultimate certitude of our mortality. So, reconciling raw statistics with these feelings and fears can seem rather cold and brutal and uncaring. That said, however, the sophisticated investor should be able to step beyond the emotional and confused rationales, study the numbers and make better informed investment decisions from that standpoint.
A Bubble DeepSeeking a Pin?
One would think that those involved in innovation, above all walks of life should always be ready for… …innovation. However, shocking as it may seem, the tech giants at the forefront of AI development seemed to get blindsided by a Chinese minnow (DeepSeek) innovating a small scale, much more efficient, open source AI chatbot. Its metrics are impressive. It performed as well as, better, or close to on third-party tests of knowledge, reasoning, and particularly well on code and math, when compared to all the major AI tech companies.
Group-Unthink – Why Investors Need to Avoid Confused Analysis
Reading a recent CNBC article on how family offices investment decisions are changing with the transfer of wealth from older to younger generations1, it inadvertently touched on an issue which should be at the heart of all family office (and all sophisticated investors’) investment analysis, what we would term “Group-Unthink”.
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