As US stock market investors watch 2022 draw to a close, the ‘big three’ global macro-economic factors that impacted volatility this year will still be at large in 2023: Inflation, Russia, and Covid. They will continue to drive hard-to-time downward volatility spikes in 2023, impacting, at a minimum, an investor’s short to mid-term risk-adjusted returns.
How Curve Fitting Could Impact Your 2023 US Stock Market Investing
The sudden recent implosion of FTX provides an opportunity for investors to explore the importance of the role of human narrative in investment decision-making.
Nightmare on Downing Street: Marketplace Uncertainty and the Investor
The recent political turmoil in the UK has been quite simply a horror show in terms of the damage to its international reputation as a stable reliable partner, particularly in relation to its financial system.
Who Priced In What In Their Stock Market Trades?
The Federal Reserve meeting this month was keenly awaited to see if the hardline message on inflation control materialized into the expected 75bps rate increase or the less probable 100bps. It was the indeed the former, accompanied by a strong message of staying the course to control inflation long-term, at the cost of short-term pain.
Recession or Not Recession: Is That The Question?
To pun the oft quoted musing, on being, by a fictional Danish prince, we continue addressing a topic we introduced in our July commentary: the need for investors to attempt to go beyond just noise vs. signal identification and to try and understand context.
A Broader View: Informational Dissonance, Investing and Nationalizations
As investors who have met us, and readers of our monthly commentaries have come to know, our core focus at Plotinus is on US equity markets investing and the application of Artificial Intelligence to seek to improve trade decision-making. To that end, we are always seeking insights that have the potential to be usefully integrated into our AI approach.
Summertime and the Living Is Queasy
The beginning of summer has brought with it a bear market and much uncertainty with the looming prospect of a US and global recession.
The Dow and S&P 500 ended basically flat for May, but those month-end figures belied the brewing unease that was reflected in a turbulent month for the markets. For the S&P 500 to end the month flat, for example, required that it recover from hitting a May 20 low of -8%. Alas, the month-end was but a temporary respite as the market fall reinvigorated itself with the start of June.
Evaluating Precedence: Rate Hikes and Portfolio Trade Decision-Making
The recent rate increase announcement from the Fed immediately drew in the all too familiar, historical comparison as to when the last such a rate hike occurred. Beyond the cliché of history repeating itself, just how can investors evaluate the importance of historical precedence?
The Geopolitical Chimera
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most profound challenge to date of the post-Cold War world order. With the looming specter of what an expanded conflagration might potentially mean, there has been a very heavy de-escalatory stance by the West, most specifically by NATO members, that would probably be best described as anti-brinksmanship. President Joe Biden’s pledge to defend “every inch of NATO territory” can be taken as the current, literal demarcation line, where threat will be met with threat. Until that line is reached, threat will be met with acceptance (sanctions, military support, and condemnation of humanitarian atrocities).
Sobering Times
Regardless of all the unknowns associated with war there is one absolute certainty, profound human suffering.
As is oft the case, conflict-at-a-remove, produces endless, expert speculation and prognostication on the current and future pattern of the war and its geopolitical and economic ramifications. So, rather than add to that speculative melee, with our take on the investment implications of the conflict, we would prefer to reflect on how the current Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted how fragile the interpretation of information can be.
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