As investors who have met us, and readers of our monthly commentaries have come to know, our core focus at Plotinus is on US equity markets investing and the application of Artificial Intelligence to seek to improve trade decision-making. To that end, we are always seeking insights that have the potential to be usefully integrated into our AI approach.
Summertime and the Living Is Queasy
The beginning of summer has brought with it a bear market and much uncertainty with the looming prospect of a US and global recession.
The Dow and S&P 500 ended basically flat for May, but those month-end figures belied the brewing unease that was reflected in a turbulent month for the markets. For the S&P 500 to end the month flat, for example, required that it recover from hitting a May 20 low of -8%. Alas, the month-end was but a temporary respite as the market fall reinvigorated itself with the start of June.
Evaluating Precedence: Rate Hikes and Portfolio Trade Decision-Making
The recent rate increase announcement from the Fed immediately drew in the all too familiar, historical comparison as to when the last such a rate hike occurred. Beyond the cliché of history repeating itself, just how can investors evaluate the importance of historical precedence?
The Geopolitical Chimera
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most profound challenge to date of the post-Cold War world order. With the looming specter of what an expanded conflagration might potentially mean, there has been a very heavy de-escalatory stance by the West, most specifically by NATO members, that would probably be best described as anti-brinksmanship. President Joe Biden’s pledge to defend “every inch of NATO territory” can be taken as the current, literal demarcation line, where threat will be met with threat. Until that line is reached, threat will be met with acceptance (sanctions, military support, and condemnation of humanitarian atrocities).
Sobering Times
Regardless of all the unknowns associated with war there is one absolute certainty, profound human suffering.
As is oft the case, conflict-at-a-remove, produces endless, expert speculation and prognostication on the current and future pattern of the war and its geopolitical and economic ramifications. So, rather than add to that speculative melee, with our take on the investment implications of the conflict, we would prefer to reflect on how the current Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted how fragile the interpretation of information can be.
Winter Discontent
January was a tumultuous month, the major US indices all posting their worst month since the pandemic fallout of March 2020 despite a last-minute claw back in the final trading days of the month. The Federal Reserve’s confirmation of its first interest rate raise since the emergency accommodation due to the pandemic, in a way could be seen to mark the end of the pandemic era for the broad US stock market. The S&P 500’s -5.3% loss alone, does not tell the whole story of January. On two separate occasions the intraday low put the index in sub -10% correction territory.
Embracing Uncertainty
Perhaps the most resounding investment theme thus far for 2022 is uncertainty. Concern regarding this uncertainty has been amplified by the faltering start to the year in the broad US stock market, emphasized in particular by, for example, the tech sector’s performance thus far.
The Value of Interpretation
The recent acknowledgement by Jerome Powell that the current phase of higher inflation is no longer transitory, is recognition by the Federal Reserve that the present, out of kilter, global supply chain system is going to take time to resolve itself. Thus determining what the prospect of longer-term higher inflation means for the cycle ahead is important from an investor’s perspective.
“E” for Arbitrage
It has been hard to miss the fanfare and much ado of the COP 26, UN Climate Change Conference. It has caught the attention of investors and investment professionals alike as they ascertain what, if any, relevance, opportunity, or impairment COP conclusions might have, going forward.
Complex Interdependence
The recent outage of Facebook and its associated services set alarm bells ringing for some. It revealed to many people just how dependent they are on Facebook beyond its immediate social networking elements. In fact, such latent dependence on a single company would in other fields, like investment management for instance, be worthy of a concentration risk disclosure.
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