January was a tumultuous month, the major US indices all posting their worst month since the pandemic fallout of March 2020 despite a last-minute claw back in the final trading days of the month. The Federal Reserve’s confirmation of its first interest rate raise since the emergency accommodation due to the pandemic, in a way could be seen to mark the end of the pandemic era for the broad US stock market. The S&P 500’s -5.3% loss alone, does not tell the whole story of January. On two separate occasions the intraday low put the index in sub -10% correction territory.
Embracing Uncertainty
Perhaps the most resounding investment theme thus far for 2022 is uncertainty. Concern regarding this uncertainty has been amplified by the faltering start to the year in the broad US stock market, emphasized in particular by, for example, the tech sector’s performance thus far.
The Value of Interpretation
The recent acknowledgement by Jerome Powell that the current phase of higher inflation is no longer transitory, is recognition by the Federal Reserve that the present, out of kilter, global supply chain system is going to take time to resolve itself. Thus determining what the prospect of longer-term higher inflation means for the cycle ahead is important from an investor’s perspective.
“E” for Arbitrage
It has been hard to miss the fanfare and much ado of the COP 26, UN Climate Change Conference. It has caught the attention of investors and investment professionals alike as they ascertain what, if any, relevance, opportunity, or impairment COP conclusions might have, going forward.
Complex Interdependence
The recent outage of Facebook and its associated services set alarm bells ringing for some. It revealed to many people just how dependent they are on Facebook beyond its immediate social networking elements. In fact, such latent dependence on a single company would in other fields, like investment management for instance, be worthy of a concentration risk disclosure.
Anyone for Tennis?
As the US Open bubbles along at Flushing Meadows, it provides an interesting petri dish to examine how we deal with and process the encroachment of automation into a sphere of human activity.
Our Strategy Shortlisted for Prominent Institutional Asset Management Award
Plotinus Asset Management has been shortlisted as a Finalist for the Pension Bridge Institutional Asset Management Awards 2021 Quant/Systematic Strategy of the Year. The awards program is an annual milestone in the hedge-fund industry.
Should Investors Be Skeptical of Alternate Data Set-Based Investing?
As society becomes increasingly data oriented is it time for investors to take a breath and look at the complications that surround alternate data. Sophisticated investors should want to verify whether investing based on such data is the investment edge fount-of-knowledge some think it to be.
Dealing with Uncertainty
Having just passed the halfway mark, 2021 thus far has been bright for US markets with the S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ clocking up a 14.4%, 12.7% and 12.5% return respectively for the first six months. There is, however, a lot of uncertainty as to what will happen from here until the end of the year. Experts’ and pundits’ opinions are varied with most landing in the +/- 10% range. Such a lack of consensus should not be that surprising, when one looks at risk return dynamics.
What Three Years of Outperformance Taught Us
Can you invest in the market without being fully correlated to the market and eke out incremental added returns, all while shaving off some of the market’s downside volatility?