As investors are finding, there is a distinct lack of consensus on what the latter half of 2023 may bring. Expert opinion on where the S&P 500 will end the year include a pessimistic Morgan Stanley estimate of 3700 and a conservative Goldman Sachs estimate of 4500 (-14% to +3.5% from end-June levels, respectively).
AI & Structuring A New Investment Strategy Differently
From Employment to Stocks and Sectors
A considerable amount of focus is being placed on the potential impact that AI could have on the future of the white-collar employment landscape. From writing code to writing reports, jobs that are the preserve of a very narrow definition of “intellect” are potentially under severe threat. This is because AI now offers the possibilities of doing these tasks faster, doing them as well as a human counterpart could, and possibly better (in that there is the potential for less error).
Could Data Vulnerability Endanger One of Your Current or Planned Investment Portfolio Strategies?
Have AI Data Wars Begun?
Did Elon Musk fire the first salvo of an AI data usage war? We are referring to his April 19, 2023, post “They trained illegally using Twitter data. Lawsuit time.” in relation to Microsoft’s use of Twitter data to train its AI model.
How Is Your AI-based Investment Portfolio Dealing With Investment Irrationality?
The Good, the Bad, and the Confusing
March has certainly been a turbulent month for US markets for various reasons, with the most pointed condensing around the fears of a banking crisis following the demise of SVB and Signature Bank. The VIX index crossed 25 for the first time in 2023, indicating how uncertainty has been ramping up. Or was it? The S&P 500 began the month at 3970.15 and it closed at 3971.27 at the time of writing on March 28. A 0.03% change is not particularly noteworthy!
Are Your Money Managers Chatting With Bots?
Hype and Reality—I assemble, therefore, am I?
The last few weeks of ChatGPT/Bing vs Bard chatter online and in the press has elicited an outpouring of commentary on AI.
Everything from “Sydney” the would-be home-breaker, to evil alter egos, to espionage on the AI’s creators has graced the media.
The Fickleness of Data: The ‘Pass’ Or ‘Play’ Challenge When Your Portfolio Manager Is Using AI For Making Trading Decisions
Just because a data stream is available to use as input in a quantitative model for making trading decisions for an AI-based investment strategy—and it is found to be spiking, whether up or down—does not make it usefully relevant for signaling when and how to trade, be it on an ongoing basis, or even over the short-term.
In Pursuit of Improved Risk-Adjusted Concerns, as 2022’s Uncertainties Roll Over into 2023
As US stock market investors watch 2022 draw to a close, the ‘big three’ global macro-economic factors that impacted volatility this year will still be at large in 2023: Inflation, Russia, and Covid. They will continue to drive hard-to-time downward volatility spikes in 2023, impacting, at a minimum, an investor’s short to mid-term risk-adjusted returns.
How Curve Fitting Could Impact Your 2023 US Stock Market Investing
The sudden recent implosion of FTX provides an opportunity for investors to explore the importance of the role of human narrative in investment decision-making.
Nightmare on Downing Street: Marketplace Uncertainty and the Investor
The recent political turmoil in the UK has been quite simply a horror show in terms of the damage to its international reputation as a stable reliable partner, particularly in relation to its financial system.
Who Priced In What In Their Stock Market Trades?
The Federal Reserve meeting this month was keenly awaited to see if the hardline message on inflation control materialized into the expected 75bps rate increase or the less probable 100bps. It was the indeed the former, accompanied by a strong message of staying the course to control inflation long-term, at the cost of short-term pain.
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